“Recession indicators” are playing out in everyday beauty choices and cutbacks online, where hashtags like #RecessionCore are trending.
Beauty brand strategist @ReallyRachelGreen shared that she’s only purchased refills for her empty essentials during this year’s Sephora Sale. Creator Dr Leila Javidi (@DrLeilaIsSad) says she ditched the annual sale altogether. Other creators, like Mecca Evans (@MeccaVellii), have observed an influx of DIY beauty treatments, as the rise of new technologies like body cavitation machines, skin tag removal kits and micro-needling become accessible at home. Meanwhile, @Bxthzy claims that going months without nail, lash and hair colour appointments is another telling sign. “Recession indicator blonde” currently has 11.9 million views on TikTok, as consumers lean into a ‘lived-in’ blonde look featuring darker, brown-tinted hues, thanks to the notoriously expensive upkeep of blonde locks.
TikTok content
No matter how subtle or bold, these changing beauty trends represent an underlying feeling of financial caution. How should beauty brands respond?
According to Nia Pejsak, advisory director at trends intelligence firm Stylus, recessions have traditionally met with the “lipstick effect”, an economic theory suggesting consumers spend less on big-ticket items during financial uncertainty but indulge in small luxuries — like lipsticks, among other small-ticket beauty products. But the growing presence of dupes has complicated the outlook, as customers seek out alternatives to luxury products.
“The rise of dupes in recent economically turbulent years has been an obvious indicator of how people are looking to indulge without the price tag,” Pejsak says. What’s interesting about the latest iteration of the lipstick effect in light of a looming recession, notes Pejsak, is that the beauty category has become intertwined with the wellness category. “Consumers are looking for beauty products that tangibly improve their well-being in chaotic economic, political and environmental circumstances.” This suggests that when people do choose to spend, they’re going to expect their products to do more for them.
According to data shared by market research company Mintel, consumer spending on beauty is estimated to have increased 10.6 per cent to £30.5 billion in 2024, even though 59 per cent of adults say the rising prices of such products are concerning. There seems to be a growing paradox whereby consumers are still willing to invest in beauty despite financial pressure and the influx of recession indicators. Samantha Dover, category director of beauty and personal care at Mintel, says that while consumers remain willing to spend on beauty products, if spending power shrinks — at a time when consumers are already questioning the value and efficacy of their products — brands will need to be prepared.
How brands are responding
Kevin Gould, co-founder of Glamnetic, a magnetic lashes and press-on nails brand, says that beauty has remained relatively recession-resistant, but has also noticed consumers attempting to stretch their dollars further. While they are still buying beauty, consumers are often postponing repurchases and reducing overall discretionary spend for the time being.
In response, Glamnetic is upping its focus on educating consumers about press-on nails and highlighting the cost savings as part of its value proposition. Gould notes that with salon pricing up 25 per cent over the last four years, Glamnetic is trying to amp up communication that DIY and press-on nails offer an affordable beauty alternative. “We’re leaning into that message more than ever across our ads, content and founder-led storytelling, especially with clear comparisons between salon prices and the affordability of DIY nails,” Gould says.
Founder Karishma Pranjivan of wellness brand Manjula Essentials agrees. “A recession doesn’t mean people stop investing, it means they become more discerning. There’s a stronger desire for products that feel emotionally and functionally ‘worth it’,” she shares. “Rather than trying to scale aggressively in a slow economy, we’re continuously refining our message, nurturing customer loyalty and investing in intimacy over pure virality. This includes more founder notes, slow launches with intention and leaning into our generational family narrative.”
Sophie Kerbegian, co-founder of luxury skincare brand Klira, is focused on efficiency and efficacy. Klira offers a subscription-based, custom, singular formula tailored to individual skin needs, simplifying routines and eliminating the need for multiple products. “The key is to effectively communicate value. For us, that means helping people understand that one Klira Special [formula] can have up to 11 tailored ingredients in a single step.”
Skincare brand Dieux’s co-founders, Charlotte Palermino and Joyce de Lemos, are awaiting more information before taking any preparatory steps. Instead, they are sticking with what they know. “Dieux has always had a tight edit of products, and if I’m going to be honest, I’ve never been more grateful. We have five formulas, so we will continue our strategy of intentional launches that have high efficiency and loyalty,” the duo shares.
Lyma, a tech-forward premium skincare brand, is navigating the market conditions by leaning into at-home, science-backed luxury treatments that offer long-term value. “Fundamentally, an economic downturn is something we should all take very seriously and safeguard ourselves against, but it’s also these times when science-backed, smartly engineered products thrive,” says founder Lucy Goff. To sustain this, Lyma provides Split It and Klarna payments to allow everyone access to their products via payment plans if needed. “We hear from customers all the time who tell us that having the flexibility to pay over time made all the difference for them.”
The winning strategy through turbulent waters
Dover points out that consumers increasingly want to validate their purchase decisions. “When they are buying something they’ve not bought before, they often do their homework — researching ingredients and checking online reviews,” she says. “So with that in mind, scientific backing is important. The more proof a brand can give consumers that products are going to work, the more likely they are to succeed.”
Meanwhile, Pejsak suggests adapting messaging that reflects this smart-spending movement. “Consumer confidence is shaken, but this uncertainty means that trends like ‘loud budgeting’, underconsumption and deinfluencing are fostering smart spending. Brands need to navigate messaging that supports this — calling out benefits like value or multifunction, or celebrating their cult, bestselling products as no-risk, practical purchases,” says Pejsak.
Should brands be worried? Dover says that even with global costs rising, consumers remain willing to spend on beauty products, and social pressures to look good will protect the beauty industry for the foreseeable future.
But beauty brands shouldn’t rest on their laurels. “Beauty habits change during economic uncertainty, but people are still going to spend money on looking and feeling their best. You could argue more so in challenging times,” Goff adds. “My take is to be clear on your company strategy while remaining agile and building in resilience wherever possible.”
As consumer behaviour grows increasingly cautious, the beauty industry is showcasing its resilience by focusing on science, transparency and emotional connection, instead of simply trying to scale aggressively to exceed expectations during a whispered recession.
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