Thanks to uber-wealthy shoppers like Lauren Sánchez Bezos — who flashed not one but two oversized diamond engagement rings at her Venetian nuptials — and the middle-class consumers opting to spend their $1,000 budgets on a Cartier Trinity bracelet instead of a handbag, jewellery remains resilient as the wider luxury market contracts.
This is despite price increases almost across the board, as jewellery players have sought to offset tariffs, inflation and the rising cost of gold. Analysts point out that jewellers have been more conservative in their approaches to price rises than fashion brands, and consumers see the rationale behind the uplifts as linked to the climbing value of gold. “Unlike handbags, jewellery has not priced out aspirational customers,” says Federica Levato, partner at management consultancy Bain. “It is seen as an investment and it is proving resilient.”
Growth at Kering and Richemont’s jewellery maisons each notched up around 4 per cent in 2024, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. At LVMH, where jewellery continues to outshine other categories, gains across most brands were slightly offset by a 3 per cent dip at Fred and Tiffany. The prospects for 2025 remain broadly positive: Kering’s latest results underline the momentum of its jewellery portfolio, while LVMH reported a modest 1 per cent uptick in its watches and jewellery division, although linked to currency adjustments.
In recent years, jewellery houses have strengthened their product offerings by filling gaps across all price points, amplifying the visibility of their events — particularly in high jewellery — investing in cultural initiatives and refining design to differentiate beyond gemstone value alone. Their agility in seizing opportunities has allowed them to thrive.
While some point to newly introduced tariffs under the Trump administration and rising gold prices as potential headwinds, these are unlikely to significantly disrupt the sector. Instead, the greater risk may lie in one of jewellery’s strengths: icons. Another challenge could come from China, once a key growth engine, and India, a market long seen as promising but slow to deliver.
Here, we unpack the forces that will shape the jewellery market in the second half of 2025 and beyond.
US tariffs and high gold prices: A partial threat
On 2 April, the US announced a 10 per cent baseline import duty and higher reciprocal tariffs — 31 per cent for Switzerland, 20 per cent for the EU, 10 per cent for the UK, and 26 to 27 per cent for India. While the 10 per cent tariff from Europe has been in effect since 5 April, the higher tariffs have been delayed as the administration continues to negotiate trade agreements. An initial deadline of 9 July to enact them has now been pushed to 1 August. At the time of writing, the US is levying an average tariff of 51.1 per cent on imports from China.
On 3 April, Pandora, the world’s largest jewellery producer by volume, with products ranging from $35 to $2,200, said that US tariffs will impact imports from key manufacturing hubs including Thailand, Vietnam, India and China. The company estimated a gross annual impact of approximately $168 million, with a projected hit of $98 million in 2025, if the reciprocal tariffs outlined on 2 April are enforced. While Pandora has not announced any price increases, it is adjusting its supply chain to serve Canada and Latin America directly, bypassing its US distribution hub.
However, for higher end jewellery, the effect of tariffs may prove negligible.
“The higher the price segment, the less noticeable the impact,” says Oliver Müller, founder of LuxeConsult, a consultancy for the luxury watch industry. Since tariffs apply to the import value — not to the retail price — a 31 per cent duty translates to roughly a 12 per cent retail increase, while the current 10 per cent base rate adds about 3 per cent.
Cartier and Van Cleef Arpels have already responded. Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a New York management consultancy, reports that Cartier implemented 3 per cent price increases on jewellery and 5 per cent on watches in the US as of May, keeping hikes in line with or below other markets to protect volume and consumer loyalty. In April, Van Cleef Arpels applied 10 per cent US price increases on its icon products, with lower adjustments in Europe (+5 per cent) and China (+7 per cent), while continuing to operate under a universal pricing policy to maintain global consistency, per BCG.
Reflecting on the non-essential nature of luxury, Müller adds, “there may be initial hesitation, but it’s psychological — once the new prices settle in, no one thinks twice. After all, no one truly needs another bracelet or another watch.”
Small brands that are less equipped than big groups to hedge spikes in gold prices are, therefore, more likely to take the brunt. Sheherazade Goldsmith, founder of emerging jewellery brand Loquet, has a clear plan: “The US is one of our largest markets, and any shifts in import duties inevitably affect both our pricing and customer experience. That said, we’ve always believed in transparency. We include duties and taxes upfront for our international customers, so there are no hidden charges. If tariffs rise further, we’ll likely absorb part of that cost ourselves before passing anything significant onto our customers.”
Gold prices are at an all-time high of $3,283 per ounce, versus $2,358 on 8 July 2024, as geopolitical tensions and economic instability pushed investors to buy. These price fluctuations are a constant of the jewellery business for which big brands have always hedged themselves. Smaller, less shielded brands, however, may have been forced to find solutions, for example by rethinking the design of certain products to limit the gold content, or by using other materials such as platinum and silver. Some brands, such as Loquet and Lily Gabriella, have opted to increase their pricing and elevate their positioning in line with the heightened gold prices.
The new triad of jewellery strategy
Against this challenging backdrop, brands are broadly leaning on three strategic levers to succeed: high jewellery; building cultural capital and offering a range of price points, from entry-level to high jewellery; and boosting the middle range (below $100,000).
High jewellery — defined as one-of-a-kind pieces costing north of $100,000 — may account for just 30 per cent, on average, of jewellery houses’ turnovers, but beyond its commercial weight, it is a powerful tool for building brand equity, fuelling storytelling and captivating customers through mediatised events. Unsurprisingly, luxury houses are doubling down on high jewellery: expanding their collections year-on-year and transforming their presentations into cultural events that tour the globe, with new pieces and fresh social media content at each stop.
In May, for instance, Louis Vuitton invited its top clients to the Majorcan capital of Palma, where its latest high jewellery collection was staged at historic landmarks including the Castell de Bellver. Pomellato unveiled its ‘Collezione 1967’ collection — its largest high jewellery offering to date — inside Milan’s Pinacoteca di Brera, with models strolling past a statue of Napoleon posing as Caesar. Meanwhile, LVMH-owned Repossi has chosen the Musée du Quai Branly in Paris for its latest presentation, following last year’s event at the Centre Pompidou during the Brancusi retrospective, which it helped sponsor.
“These moments are crafted to strengthen relationships with our most valued clients,” says Boris Barboni, CMO of Kering-owned Pomellato. “We offer them not just access to new creations, but meaningful cultural experiences.” Pomellato has also developed Casa Pomellato, a private client experience where VICs (very important clients) can visit the brand’s ateliers, meet creative director Vincenzo Castaldo and gem master Stefano Cortecci, while commissioning bespoke pieces.
Beyond staging events, culture now permeates every layer of luxury jewellery strategy, following in the footsteps of Cartier, which set the benchmark years ago with its Foundation for Contemporary Art. Bvlgari, through its own foundation, has supported major restoration projects — from the Spanish Steps in Rome, to around 150 sculptures from Italy’s storied Torlonia Collection. Pomellato partners with Venetian Heritage on restorations in Venice, while Van Cleef Arpels, through its educational arm L’École, has collaborated with publisher Franco Maria Ricci on re-issuing classic cultural titles.
Still, brands remain laser-focused on building complete product portfolios across every price point. “While VICs are driving stronger growth than average, we’re seeing resilience across all client segments,” notes Barboni. Repossi CEO Anne de Vergeron agrees: “High jewellery and exceptional pieces remain attractive to certain clients, even in the current environment.” Yet, Repossi’s focus in recent years has been to build a collection that spans a range of prices — from pieces below $1,000, through the middle range of $10,000 to $100,000. This strategy has also been embraced by Bvlgari, which tripled its turnover in the matter of a decade.
Icons and the threat of ubiquity
Although high jewellery captures everyone’s attention, the bulk of sales at jewellery maisons comes from repeatable designs or icons, particularly beloved classics like Cartier’s Love and Van Cleef Arpels’s Alhambra.
Iconic collections account for approximately 75 per cent of Cartier’s sales, including over €1 billion from the Love line alone in 2024, according to BCG managing director and partner Pierre Dupreelle. Dupreelle notes that icons have turbocharged jewellery houses’ growth, and their share of sales continues to grow.
But while the success of icons is built on visibility, increasing ubiquity — compounded by the spread of counterfeits and Gen Z’s relaxed attitude towards dupes (#CartierDupe has over 18 million views on TikTok) — may threaten their long-term appeal.
To counter this risk, Cartier and Van Cleef Arpels have each elevated their iconic collections through more intricate versions and higher price points, all while introducing new ones. Boucheron reimagined its Quatre range as a red carpet-worthy jewel worn by Charlize Theron at the Oscars last year. At the same time, heritage brands are bringing new icons to their portfolios. Amrita Banta of Agility Research, which regularly surveys high-net-worth individuals, notes that 35 per cent of respondents have tried two or more new brands this year, a trend fashion maisons like Dior and Louis Vuitton have seized upon by establishing signature designs of their own, while simultaneously adapting them across various price points.
“In all personal luxury categories and brands, there is the paradox of exclusivity (like feeling unique, be a small circle of shared tastes or shared values) and inclusivity (like the need of brands to have a broad customer base to grow through strongly recognisable icons desired by a large number of customers). It happened with bags, now it is happening in jewellery,” says Bain’s Levato. “The key for brands lies in their ability to engage consumers meaningfully and deliver strong experiential and emotional value propositions.”
Design over diamonds
In June, the Gemological Institute of America (GIA) introduced a grading system specifically for laboratory-grown diamonds, separating it from the 4C system (carat, clarity, colour, cut) used for natural stones. “By introducing broader descriptors for laboratory-grown diamonds, GIA is telling consumers these are not the same products and shouldn’t be evaluated the same way,” says David Kellie, CEO of the Natural Diamond Council, which promotes consumer education on behalf of natural diamond producers.
While lab-grown diamonds have surged in popularity — about half of all engagement rings in the US are set with a lab-grown diamonds, according to bridal website The Knot, while online retailer 77Diamonds reports a 30 per cent increase in diamond sales over the past five years across all types of jewellery — their prices have plummeted. Industry analyst Paul Zimnisky calculates that lab-grown diamond prices have dropped more than 80 per cent in the past decade, while the prices of natural diamonds have recovered from last year’s dip linked partly to the pressure of manmade stones and China’s slowdown. Over the past 12 months, the price of a 1.5-carat, VS-clarity, near-colourless natural diamond rose by 2 per cent, but a comparable lab-grown diamond fell by 25 per cent, he adds.
This divergence reinforces the perception of lab-grown diamonds as mass-market products embraced by brands like Pandora, while luxury houses continue to rely on natural stones to maintain exclusivity.
However, high jewellery is no longer defined by gems alone, as design and craftsmanship increasingly take centre stage.
Louis Vuitton, for instance, has built a strong high jewellery identity through its proprietary LV Monogram Star diamond cut, inspired by the maison’s iconic flower emblem. Its collections blend graphic reinterpretations of the monogram LV initials, as well as elements drawn from the brand’s trunk-making heritage. One of the highlights of Piaget’s most recent high jewellery collection ‘Shapes of Extraleganza’ was a necklace combining nine coloured hard stones set with an inlay technique mimicking pietra dura, typical in decorative objects. At Pomellato, it was chains in every size, shapes and finishes that were elevated to the realm of high jewellery in ‘Collezione 1967’, while the Milanese brand also collaborated with Gucci on an exclusive high jewellery capsule named ‘Monili’, due to be unveiled during Paris Couture Week.
Chinese and Indian brands rise up
Since going global in the early 2000s, Western luxury brands spread the gospel that good taste and high craftsmanship were cultivated under the glow of the Eiffel Tower and in the cobbled streets around La Scala. The world embraced the credo — none more fervently than China, which fuelled much of the industry’s growth. But the equivalent of a Lutheran reform is underway. China and India are challenging the long-standing dominance of European maisons in their respective countries, alongside expanding abroad.
In China, the meteoric rise of Laopu marks a turning point. Founded in 2009 by Xu Gaoming and established as a brand in 2016, Laopu is projected by Morgan Stanley to reach $2.8 billion in sales by 2025— surpassing Cartier’s estimated $1.5 billion. “Laopu’s sales are growing exponentially, while Cartier’s have been contracting,” notes a Morgan Stanley study led by analyst Edouard Aubin.
Laopu’s success — shattering the belief that heritage is a high barrier to entering luxury — is driven in part by rising gold prices and the perceived value of its products. Unlike Western brands that use 18-karat gold, Laopu uses 24-karat gold and has developed rare expertise in setting diamonds in the softer metal. With heavier, more visibly valuable products, Western brands — which have higher margins because of import duties — appear overpriced in comparison.
The ‘guochao’ (or “China chic”) movement, which celebrates Chinese heritage and encourages consumers to support domestic brands, also plays a key role. Laopu has capitalised on this sentiment. In 2020, the jeweller’s sales stood at just $130 million; by 2024, they had reached $2.7 billion — trailing only Chow Tai Fook ($11.6 billion) and Lao Feng Xiang ($6.8 billion), while ahead of Chow Tai Seng ($1.9 billion) and Luk Fook ($1.8 billion). Unlike most competitors, Laopu does not rely on franchises — its directly owned stores give it tighter control over brand image and customer experience. Investors believe so much in Laopu’s potential that since its IPO in Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year, the brand’s market capitalisation soared to $18.1 billion, ahead of the giant Chow Tai Fook at $14.2 billion.
While some may attribute Laopu’s rise to the soaring price of gold, a broader trend is more troubling for Western brands: Chinese consumers appear to be falling out of love with them. According to Morgan Stanley, the share of Chinese clients across Richemont brands declined steadily between March 2024 and March 2025 (down 15 per cent in March 2024, with a sharp dip of 20 per cent in September 2024, and down again in March 2025 by 8 per cent). Richemont offset these losses with growth in the US and Europe.
If the rapid rise of India’s middle class and billionaires (the number of which jumped from 70 to 284 in the past decade, according to India Today) once gave luxury brands hope of becoming the next China, the reality — centuries-old, highly skilled Indian jewellers, combined with cultural norms where the Western concept of an engagement ring feels alien — has forced a reassessment.
“The reason Western jewellers struggle in India was plain to see at the Ambani wedding,” quips Bvlgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin (the wedding showcased styles that are popular in India, such as nose rings, anklets and head ornaments, which Western jewellers typically do not include in their core ranges). Bvlgari was among the first to acknowledge both the challenges and the opportunities, enlisting Priyanka Chopra as ambassador and launching a Bvlgari version of the mangalsutra, a necklace traditionally worn by married women in India.
But the issue with Indian jewellers is not simply — unlike in China — their strength in the local market. The real threat is their global expansion, offering jewellery that matches Western maisons in quality and seduces with innovative design beyond the obvious customer base made by the Indian diaspora.
Leading the charge is Sabyasachi Mukherjee, founder of the eponymous brand Sabyasachi, which is now stocked at Bergdorf Goodman in New York and partnered with King Charles and Queen Camilla on the Elephant Family charity event last year. More recently, Viren Bhagat — whose pieces were worn by members of the Ambani family — opened a showroom in London’s Mayfair. Santi Jewels, founded by a 10th-generation member of the Choudhary family of gemstone collectors, has exhibited at the Tefaf Maastricht art centre and held trunk shows across the US.
Yet the rise of Chinese and Indian brands may also present opportunities for Western luxury groups, following Kering’s lead as the first to dip its toes into the market with an investment in Qeelin. After all, jewellery’s resilience hasn’t been accidental: it has been strategically built by remaining laser-focused on clients’ evolving needs and meeting them across every price point and aesthetic desire, even those they didn’t know they had.
Key takeaway: Thanks to a rational approach to pricing, investment appeal, cultural relevance and ability to meet customers at every price point, jewellery brands have defied the luxury downturn. Growth has been driven by signature, repeatable designs known as icons; however, a strategic effort to elevate existing icons and create new ones is needed to avoid the threat of ubiquity and counterfeits. When it comes to global markets, the rise of Chinese and Indian jewellers challenges European dominance, but also presents opportunities.
