This afternoon, Joe Biden stated that he would not be accepting the Democratic nomination, but instead focusing on his remaining time in office as president.
Given the historically unprecedented moment—no sitting president has dropped out of the race so late in the election cycle before—there is a lot we still don’t know about how things will play out over the next few months. Here, however, we look at some of the frontrunners to take over the ticket.
Kamala Harris, Vice President
First and foremost, the vice president has already received endorsements from both President Biden and former President Bill Clinton. (Harris’s response, in statement released on Sunday afternoon: “I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination.”) She is also the person likeliest to carry on his legacy and preserve a sense of stability. As a member of the 2024 Biden-Harris ticket, the vice president is the only candidate whose campaign could assume control of the funds raised by Biden for the presidential election at this point. She is also the president’s key mouthpiece for issues related to reproductive rights—a critical election issue—and a former prosecutor who would be going up against a convicted felon.
Some point to what are perceived as Vice President Harris’s political weaknesses; the Trump campaign has reportedly been honing its attack on Harris for some time. A few Democrats, including Governor Jon Tester of Montana (himself facing a difficult election), have already publicly called for an open convention.
When it comes to race, there’s a cynical point to be made: It doesn’t look great for Democrats to side-step the first Black woman to serve as vice president. It also perhaps hurts the Trump campaign to have a Black woman on the ticket in a year when they are hoping to gain Black voters.
J. B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois
Pritzker has been an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, seeming to show little hesitation when it comes to condemning the former president’s criminal record. He has also been vocal about the dangers he believes Trump poses, saying earlier this month: “If he’s elected in 2024, he will be a terrible man, still, who understands exactly how to manipulate the levers of government, and he will do it.” Apart from the refreshingly fiery rhetoric, Pritzker can also point to an impressive progressive record.
Though popular in the Midwest, and credited with charting a new path for the Democratic Party in his state, Pritzker has probably less national name recognition than some others.
The billionaire governor of Illinois (as well as America’s wealthiest elected official) could essentially self-finance a campaign. Also: Pritzker will be welcoming Democrats to Chicago next month for the Democratic National Convention.
Gavin Newsom, Governor of California
The California governor has built a storied career in politics since he was elected mayor of San Francisco in 2003. He held the position of the state’s lieutenant governor from 2011 until 2019, after which he was elected governor. Newsom has long been floated as a presidential contender, and his enthusiastic work as a campaign surrogate for Biden struck some as a sign that he will run for office. “I think this is in equal service to Biden ’24 and Newsom ’28,” Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist think tank Third Way, told the New York Times in September 2023, referring to Newsom’s efforts. But with Biden out of the race sooner than expected, perhaps Newsom would consider expediting his plan.
Newsom found himself at the center of a recall election in 2021 due to his actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he defied his own safety recommendations to partake in a dinner party at the French Laundry. After he survived the vote, Newsom told The Texas Tribune that he would not run for election in 2024, noting that he was shaken by the recall. “They went after me. Hard. That’s sobering,” he said. “That wakes you up, how vulnerable, how fast this is, how people come and go, and, you know, how people cut you off.”
Despite his role as California Governor, Newsom has been looking beyond his home state for some time. In 2023, he launched the political action committee, Campaign for Democracy, which, per its mission statement, seeks to “fight rising authoritarianism across the nation.” While that might signal national ambitions, Newsom has been an outspoken advocate for Biden during this election cycle. After the president’s performance at the presidential debate in Atlanta left Democrats questioning his fitness to run, the governor continued on as a firm Biden campaign surrogate. It is also perhaps worth noting that should Vice President Harris emerge as the Democrats’ nominee,
Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania
As the governor of Pennsylvania—and quite a popular one at that, winning upwards of 3 million votes during his gubernatorial election in 2022, a record-breaking number—Josh Shapiro heads up a state that has long been a focus of presidential campaigning. (While Trump won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin in 2016, Biden was able to flip it blue in 2020, helping to confirm his win.)
Additionally, in a polling memo published by Politico earlier this month, Shapiro was one of four Democratic politicians (also including Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan) shown to outpace President Biden “by roughly five points” across seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
While popular within his state and across the aisle, Shapiro, like Pritzker, lacks the name recognition that other peers of his, like Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom, have across the country.
He has also previously denied his interest in running for president should Biden drop out of the race. “I just asked the good people of Pennsylvania to be their governor,” Shapiro told KDKA-TV in early July. “They honored me with this opportunity to have the job that I want and the job that I think I can do good things from to make people s lives better. God willing, I will have the health and the ability to continue to serve, and I’ll serve all four years.”
Shapiro is a firm proponent of abortion access. In 2023, he ended Pennsylvania’s long-established contract with Real Alternatives, a nonprofit organization known to support anti-abortion counseling centers across the state. “For decades, taxpayer dollars have gone to fund Real Alternatives. My administration will not continue that pattern—we will ensure women in this commonwealth receive the reproductive health care they deserve,” Shapiro said in a statement. “Pennsylvanians made clear by electing me as governor that they support a woman’s freedom to choose, and I will be steadfast in defending that right.”
Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan
Governor Whitmer has become a rising star in the Democratic Party since her election in 2018. In 2020, she delivered the Party’s response to then-President Trump’s State of the Union address, and was even shortlisted to be President Biden’s running mate in the 2020 election. She has proven herself a key figure in the Midwest—even winning reelection in the swing state in 2022 with an impressive 54% of the vote—and would certainly help enliven the Midwestern battleground states in the upcoming election.
In October 2022, Whitmer told ABC syndicate WXYZ Detroit that she would not run for president in the case that President Biden chose not to seek reelection in 2024. “I’m running for four more years as governor,” she said.
During her term as governor, the self-described progressive Democrat has shown her ability to work across the aisle, running on infrastructure-based policies which earned bipartisan support. Biden also nominated Whitmer for vice chair of the Democratic National Convention, which she has served since 2021.
