This May, independent designer Presley Oldham is marking the five-year anniversary of his eponymous jewellery brand.
After a stellar 2024, he should be celebrating. Instead, he says he’s facing existential questions about the future of his brand.
“I am not closing my business, but this is the first time that I’ve actually had to sit and think about that as a possibility,” Oldham says after a pause. He is one of many independent designers already reeling from the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs — the most recent of which came into effect on 9 April.
Vogue Business spoke to nine independent designers who say they have already seen prices rise on manufacturing and materials, or been told by their partner factories and mills that they’re coming. Some report discontinued orders from wholesalers; others have had international packages returned after customers refused to pay sky-high duties. All are anxious. Not just about the inevitable price hikes across the industry, but about the level of uncertainty and instability around them.
The biggest blow yet came late on 8 April, when the US’s tariffs on China were upped to 104 per cent. “China tariffs are going to 104 per cent tonight at midnight and will decimate our business,” New York knitwear brand Lingua Franca posted to Instagram that afternoon. “It’s a very surreal experience to try and navigate a young brand during such a turbulent time,” Christina Chanel Ripley, brand manager of Christopher John Rogers, posted to her Instagram story in response to the news.
Turbulent is right. On 9 April, following conversations with these designers, President Trump said that he would halt retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, after speaking with nation leaders about the trade situation. The break doesn’t include China — he’s raising the 104 per cent tariffs to 125 per cent following China’s retaliatory 84 per cent tariffs. It makes abundantly clear the common thread across the conversations: the uncertainty is throwing independent brands into a tailspin.
“Tariffs are becoming more than just trade policy. They are creative constraints and business risks — influencing what we design, how we source and who gets to compete,” says Ashlynn Park, designer of New York-based label Ashlyn. “For emerging and independent designers like us, these policies have real consequences that go well beyond economics.”
Cancelled orders, changing costs
If retailers are forced to pay more to get international goods on shelves, they’ll need to prioritise major brands. This spells bad news for independent labels.
In March, Oldham went to market in Paris for the first time. There, international retailers from Mexico and Canada expressed interest in the brand but said they couldn’t speak with him this season because of the tariffs. After Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ measures were announced, Oldham received an email from a US stockist: they were unable to place a new order because of the tariffs they now have to pay on products from the big-name European houses. Stores from the UK and France that committed to orders in Paris have also since cancelled, fearing reciprocal tariffs on US imports.
Stephanie Suberville Rodriguez, co-founder and creative director of New York-based Heirlome, sources and produces in locations including Mexico City, Italy, China and New York. Working a year ahead, Rodriguez has already closed her pre-fall and fall orders — without taking the extra tariffs into account. “At the end of May, we’re going to get all our fall fabric. We’re going to have to pay a huge bill that we were not prepared for,” she says. “For the next two seasons, basically our profits are destroyed.” Then, she has a choice, she says: raise prices or forego quality.
Though Ashlyn’s Park says she hasn’t lost any accounts at this stage, many of the international retailers she works with — most of whom are independent — have already revised their brand structures to diminish those of US origin, she says. Wholesale makes up 80 per cent of Ashlyn’s distribution.
She hopes that strong sell-through rates can protect retail relationships, but planning has been thrown into disarray, hurting margins. “The tariffs were implemented as the spring shipping season got underway,” Park says. This season, Ashlyn is sharing the tariff percentage with its international retail clients. “We did not factor this cost into our margins as the price was set months ago, so we will absorb the hit — as will our clients,” she says.
Looking ahead, designers are tossing up whether to hike prices or sacrifice on quality and materials; whether to prioritise direct-to-consumer or wholesale; whether and how to change their supply chain operations; and when to pause — and restart — their efforts to scale and grow. Los Angeles-based designer Brooke Callahan, who planned to focus on international growth this year, is putting that on pause. “It’s this holding pattern of a wait and see that is costly for everyone — especially in a very seasonally driven and time-sensitive industry,” she says. “It’s hard to be in flux in [an industry] that has such set deadlines.”
Many wholesalers know the value of having independent brands in the mix. Though Austin retailer ByGeorge hasn’t ruled out rethinking its brand mix entirely — “brands that manufacture or source materials from the countries with the steepest tariffs face the risk of being untenable to import,” says president Molly Nutter — it’s committed to working with independent brands in the weeks and months ahead.
“It’s more important now than ever to support the independent brands, to help them find solutions and find a way to share in the burden together,” Nutter says. “The more established brands are not a silver bullet, and the interesting mix of both is what is compelling.”
What’s possible at home?
Proponents of the tariffs claim they will bring production back to the US. But the infrastructure isn’t there. And if the infrastructure was there, the raw materials would still be lacking.
“This country only makes cotton, and there’s no magic meadow with cashmere goats,” Rodriguez says dryly. “All the wool in the world comes from South America or Australia. All the silk comes from Brazil or China. Even if you’re buying silk from Italy, the yarn comes from China. So even if you start making factories to make fabric, you still have to bring the yarn [from overseas].”
The same goes for Oldham — there are no freshwater pearls to be found in the US. He buys his pearls from Japan and China; his Murano glass from Venice, Italy. He has his materials for the next six to nine months, but is anxious about his next round of purchasing, when the tariffs have hit his suppliers.
Plus, it’s not so simple to shift an entire supply chain across continents, especially for designers who work on a smaller scale, and have built lasting relationships with their suppliers, mills and factories. “I don’t want to just start dumping people,” Rodriguez says. “You have the people that you like to work with, and I do think that loyalty is important.” Patricia Voto, founder of New York-based One/Of, agrees, and is worried about suppliers’ abilities to weather another pandemic-level crisis. “It really sets me into panic because we work with really special mills that provide really high-quality fabrics and they can’t afford any more of these [crises],” she says.
One LA-based founder, who wishes to stay anonymous to protect relationships with her factory partners, moved her production to Pakistan a year ago. Specialising in denim, the brand previously produced in Los Angeles, but relocated production overseas as the local price became untenable. “We weren’t hitting our target margins,” she says. The move was no mean feat. “It’s been scary and frustrating that this is happening after I’ve done a year of rebuilding and moving our supply chain,” she says. “Prices I’m seeing from my current factory are almost the same as what I would be paying in LA. And obviously the dream is to produce denim in LA.” She’s not making any rash decisions, but is exploring what a return home would look like.
The US manufacturing sector only has so much capacity. Callahan, who manufactures in LA, is waiting to see whether production prices will rise at home, too, as more brands return to the US amid tariff-driven price increases abroad. Voto shares these concerns for New York’s Garment District. “I worry that our manufacturers in the garment centre are suddenly going to become really busy and that it’s going to have an effect on how we produce — we don’t like to rush the process,” she says. “Don’t forget about us. We’re still here.”
Community ties
Brands across all tiers are concerned about consumer confidence. But for many independent designers operating at a contemporary price point — above mid-market; below luxury — consumer pullback is an even larger worry.
“When you’re an independent brand, you’re really relying more on the enthusiast consumer than a conventional luxury consumer,” says Kartik Kumra of Kartik Research. “I don’t think our guy is buying Hermès. Maybe in Asia or in India, but not in the US.” Because of this, the squeeze on disposable income is Kumra’s main concern; his customers are less immune to a possible recession or waning consumer confidence.
Indie designers, though, foster strong communities. It’s why Callahan doesn’t want to have to bump her prices to make wholesale work — it would ostracise her current client base.
Kumra is confident that this strong client base will help keep customers spending and his brand afloat. On 18 April, he’s opening his first store outside of India, in New York’s Lower East Side. “I didn’t study fashion. I was one of these enthusiasts and that’s how I got into this lane,” he says. “I think the people that have been buying from the brand do feel quite passionate about it. And hopefully that, in combination with the store being this really interesting retail experience, can be a real driver in a very uncertain time.”
Oldham is slowing down his efforts to scale for now. Instead of big launches and an anniversary event, he’s planning to do more trunk shows this year. “I hope that the people who come to those will really be invested in the brand,” he says.
Beyond their own brand communities, designers are looking to one another for a boost. Rodriguez says she’s been in close contact with designer friends she’s made over the years. Oldham has been convening with his Hudson community. This week, his plan was to reach out to his fellow New York City designers to organise a sample sale to boost sales. “To actually just get a little money in our pockets so that we can keep going,” he says. “It’s as simple as that.” As for institutional support, the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA) confirmed that it is currently working on a plan to support member designers as they navigate the tariffs, but said it wasn’t ready to share details.
“The only thing that makes me feel better is just thinking everybody’s on the same boat,” Rodriguez says. “We’re all kind of in the same place and everybody’s sort of worried. But we’ll see what happens.”
Correction: Wholesale makes up 80 per cent of Ashlyn’s distribution, not 60 per cent as previously reported.
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