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The watch industry is facing tough times. Swiss watch exports fell 3.8 per cent year-on-year in February — the first decline for more than two years, data published by the Federation of Swiss Watch Industry in March shows.
“There was a post-Covid period, which was favourable for the entire watchmaking industry. The post-post-Covid period is a little trickier,” says Cyrille Vigneron, president and CEO of Cartier, at an event during the latest edition of Geneva trade fair Watches and Wonders, which came to a close on Monday 15 April. Cartier was among the 54 watch brands participating in the fair, alongside Rolex, Patek Philippe, Chanel and Hermès (Swatch Group and Audemars Piguet opted out).
In particular, Swiss watch exports to Mainland China slumped 25.4 per cent in February — a dramatic swing from the 7.6 per cent growth experienced in 2023, per the federation. Vigneron’s note of caution was echoed by Jean-Frédéric Dufour, chief executive of Rolex (whose sales surpassed CHF 10 billion in 2023, with a 30 per cent retail market share, per Morgan Stanley), who said in a rare interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ that “2024 will be a challenging year. It marks the end of a phase in which all manufacturers have been doing well.”
Despite softer demand, rising costs of raw materials — notably gold — and a strong Swiss franc, Watches and Wonders was buzzing, with around 49,000 visitors, up from 43,000 last year. Across the board, marketing strategies are evolving in step to meet a new generation of aficionados. Brands are connecting with an ecosystem of influencers and collectors, and experimenting on TikTok. Celebrity pull remains strong for the category (supermodel Gisele Bündchen and football star Kylian Mbappé, ambassadors of IWC and Hublot respectively, drew large crowds to the brands’ booths this season) and collaborations don’t show signs of slowing down (Bulgari’s new Serpenti Tubogas watch with Japanese architect Tadao Ando was a standout).
Here is our pick of the key trends to watch.
Lessons in ultra-luxury
Interest rates may be fluctuating, inflation still high and the economy volatile, but the highest end of the consumer spectrum is resilient.
“We are seeing a growing interest in more precious models, in gold, jewellery watches or with complications [referring to any function of a watch that is in addition to keeping the time],” Cartier’s Vigneron says. “This segment is growing very strongly, in pieces ranging from approximately €10,000 to €50,000. For the Panthère collection, the strongest demand at the moment is for gold, rather than steel.” This has been a growing trend: he recalls that a limited-edition platinum version of Cartier’s iconic Tank Normale, presented at last year’s fair and priced at €60,000, sold out within one hour. “We had no doubt that it would sell very well — it was magnificent — but it was a surprise that it went so quickly.”
Haute horlogerie is on everyone’s lips. Hublot presented the MP-10 (MP stands for Manufacture Piece), priced at €286,000. It is being produced in a limited run of 50 pieces. “It’s our haute couture. That’s how we tell the story of the Hublot know-how,” says Hublot CEO Ricardo Guadalupe. Meanwhile, Tag Heuer presented the new Monaco Split-Seconds Chronograph, in titanium and sapphire, priced at CHF 135,000 (€139,000). “It represents two and a half years of development. We’ll produce around 35 pieces this year,” adds Tag Heuer CEO Julien Tornare.
Extremely thin watches — which come with a higher price tag — are trending. Piaget presented the Altiplano Ultimate Concept Tourbillon, which is 2mm thick. The limited run of 15 will each be priced at €725,000, the highest price in the history of the house for a watch (excluding jewellery watches that incorporate precious stones). “We see more and more demand for high-ticket watches,” says Benjamin Comar, CEO of Piaget. Bulgari unveiled the Octo Finissimo Ultra Cosc, the slimmest mechanical watch ever designed with a thickness of 1.7mm, a new world record. It’s being produced in a short run of 20 pieces, each priced at around €600,000.
Finding a sweet spot
That said, there is still strong demand in the space that sits above aspirational, but below ultra-luxury. “A large number of watchmakers have defined their price range above CHF 20,000 (€20,600), so there is now a demand for ranges between CHF 10,000-20,000 (€10,300-€20,600), from wealthy clients who find that the others have become a little too expensive,” observes Vigneron.
Breitling CEO Georges Kern echoes the sentiment: “We are in a very sweet spot between CHF 5,000 and 20,000 (€5,100-€20,600).” Nonetheless, he points out that Breitling’s average price has risen from CHF 4,500 (€4,600) seven years ago to CHF 7,200 (€7,400). Ultra-luxury doesn’t necessarily warrant success. “If you look at the entry price points, brands like Tissot are very successful. If you’re good in the lower segment, you will sell, if you’re good in the mid segment, you will sell. And I can give you dozens of brands in the super-luxury space that are totally failing, so it’s not that we all have to rush into this,” says Kern.
Moving beyond gender stereotypes
Genderless watch designs are here to stay, executives agreed.
“The segmentation that we knew in the past — women who wanted a small watch with diamonds and quartz — is completely obsolete,” Tag Heuer’s Tornare says. “Today, of course, there is still a clientele, but there are also more and more women who want watches with complications, who want beautiful chronographs with a real movement. It’s time to put an end to these segmentations. We make beautiful watches. There are markets where men wear 36mm watches with diamonds. On the other hand, women wearing large watches has been a trend for a few years now.”
Fabrizio Buonamassa Stigliani, product creation executive director of the Bulgari watch division, notes that women are increasingly keen on mechanical movements and complications. He met the Dubai’s Ladies Watch Club. “I was imagining questions on diamonds. All we talked about was Finissimo,” he says, referring to Bulgari’s elegant watch with complex mechanical movements.
Icons over novelty
Like in jewellery, designs that stand the test of time are the holy grail.
“There was a common perception in the sector up until 10 years ago, that what was going to count at a show like this was novelty,” says Vigneron. “If we look at the sector as a whole, the houses that have made the most progress over the last 10 years are not the ones that brought big differences in design but the ones that have stayed true to themselves. Novelty isn’t the driving force, durability is. Animation is important but it’s not to say: ‘I’m going to make an absolutely new shape and this new shape is going to be a game changer.’” Cartier’s icons like Crash, Tank Normale and the Baignoire bangle have a waitlist due to strong demand.
“Cyrille Vigneron exemplifies this idea,” says Andrew McUtchen, founder of watch magazine Time+Tide. “Cartier is flush with icons, its archive is endless,” he says. “If you don’t have an icon in your back catalogue, you have to work hard to create a modern icon for yourself. Bulgari had a promising shape for men’s Octo, it was only when they created the ultra-thin version, Octo Finissimo, that the shape resonated and instantly became a platform.”
Sports are an opportunity, but not an equal one
Omega — owned by Swatch Group — is the official timekeeper of the Paris Olympics that run from 26 July to 11 August. This means other watch brands may not be able to lean on the Olympics in their marketing campaigns over the summer, even if some of their athlete ambassadors are competing in the games.
However, there are plenty of other sporting occasions in the pipeline. Hublot is the official watch of the UEFA European championship this year (slated to take place in Germany this June) and the official timekeeper for the FIFA World Cup, which will take place in 2026 across the US, Canada and Mexico.
Hublot entered the football scene in 2006, at a time when Swiss watchmakers deemed the sport too popular, favouring more elitist sports like golf and equestrian. “We realised that football is also a vector of communication that reaches billions of people during the World Cup,” says Hublot’s Guadalupe, who adds that it’s worthwhile as a brand-building exercise.
Also coming up is the Monaco Grand Prix on 26 May, whose official watch partner is Tag Heuer. Formula 1 remains a fertile ground for watchmakers including Rolex and Tag Heuer.
“The size and the popularity of the sport can be commensurate with the size and popularity of the watch brand,” says McUtchen. “However, we see very-high-end independent watch brands increasingly investing in sports marketing to appeal to a wider audience,” he adds, citing H Moser Cie’s signing with Alpine motorsports and their collaboration with Formula 1 driver Pierre Gasly; and Bovet 1822’s signing of tennis champion Daniil Medvedev. “It shows that interest, and investment, in traditionally niche brands has skyrocketed since the pandemic.”
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