The 138th edition of tennis’s longest-running sublime spectacle kicks off today at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in southwest London. No matter that the Wimbledon Championships, as they’re formally known, comprise just one quarter of tennis Grand Slam tournaments: As the oldest and most prestigious of the four, it commands a reverence above and beyond the others, even without the crowds, the strawberries and cream, the polished silver trophies. Having spent some time there during the lead-up week, with the site mostly empty, save for the world’s best players and their teams, playing each other in front of audiences comprised solely of the tournament’s grounds crew, I can confirm that business and pleasure alike are conducted with a hush more befitting a cathedral than an international sporting event.
But here we are: Today’s matches to keep an eye on feature eighth-seeded Holger Rune vs. Chilean Nicolás Jarry (while Jarry has suffered from both injuries and health problems recently, if he’s on form he’s capable of being a giant-killer), fifth-seeded American Taylor Fritz vs. the 143-m.p.h.-serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and English standout Jacob Fearnley vs. the 18-year-old Brazilian phenom-in-the-making (though we’re all still waiting for the big breakthrough) Joao Fonseca. (Or, if you’re looking for sparks, check out the always-combustible Italian Fabio Fognini, squaring off against two-time defending champion (but second-seeded) Carlos Alcaraz.
On the women’s side, second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka faces 24-year-old American-Canadian (and multihyphenate: when she’s not playing tennis, she works as a model) Carson Branstine. You’re forgiven if you haven’t heard of her, but if we’re to believe the tennis-media hype of the last week or so, having seen her defeat both French Open semifinalist/wunderkind Loïs Boisson and Canadian standout and former world number four Bianca Andreescu to qualify for Wimbledon’s main draw, she’s the new women’s version of Fonseca. Alas: Time will tell. Elsewhere, keep an eye on Spain’s Paula Badosa, seeded ninth, who plays England’s favorite, Katie Boulter; and Naomi Osaka, who plays Australian longshot Talia Gibson (the match should be a breeze for Osaka, but she’s been struggling lately).
Assuming your favorites make it through the early rounds, who’s going to take home the trophies this year?
If you’re not looking at the actual draw, Alcaraz would seem to be a shoo-in for a threepeat, yes? He’s won his last 18 matches—a career high. But his particular path through the weeds of the draw is a tricky one: He could face Felix Auger Aliassime in the third round; Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth; Holger Rune or Frances Tiafoe in the quarters; Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, or Fritz in the semis; and anyone from Jannik Sinner to Novak Djokovic to Jack Draper to Lorenzo Musetti in the finals. Again: On paper, Alcaraz can beat any single one of them—but can he run the gauntlet of whichever combination he’ll end up facing?
Sinner, meanwhile, should have an easier route through the tournament, and would seem to be playing with something to prove after that legendary French Open final against Alcaraz. That said, he was stunned by man-of-the-moment Alexander Bublik at the warmup tournament in Halle two weeks ago, ending his 49-match streak of beating everybody but Carlos Alcaraz. But Sinner is nothing if not methodical and steady: We’ll take him over Alcaraz in the final in another five-set thriller. (Spoiler alert, after seeing Jack Draper practice at Wimbledon last week: He was either peaking far too early or simply in rare and powerful form—count him out at your peril. This is perhaps Novak Djokovic’s last, best hope for a record 25th major—and a showdown between him and Draper in the semifinals could prove to be the match of the tournament, should it be conjured. Lorenzo Musetti, meanwhile, has been on a roll, but has had virtually no Wimbledon warmup and is playing the tournament as it lays, essentially.)
In the women’s draw, never mind that Aryna Sabalenka has never won Wimbledon: This should be her year. Should: Her aggressive game is perfectly suited for the fast and low-bouncing grass. Yet again, though, her biggest opponent will likely be herself. Can she keep her emotions together to withstand the inevitable mini-slump somewhere along the way? Nobody, including her, knows. Fighting to put herself in Sabalenka’s way is, most notably, Coco Gauff. The supposed bad blood between the two (after Sabalenka’s ill-advised comments following her defeat at Gauff’s hands in the French final recently) appears to be old news, particularly after their laughter-filled practice session and TikTok dance together at Wimbledon, but Gauff presents a real and continued challenge to Sabalenka—more in her steady composure than her admittedly streaky shotmaking. Others we’ll be watching: The always-dangerous-on-grass Elena Rybakina and the could-be-dangerous-if-she-keeps-herself-together (redux) Mirra Andreeva.
Let’s have fun and call the finals we want to see: After a thrilling fifth-set-tiebreak win over Djokovic, Draper finishes off a battered and bruised Alcaraz easily in the final, sending England into a frenzy; and after a thrilling third-set-tiebreak win over Gauff, Mirra Andreeva plays the match of her life, upsetting Sabalenka for her first major, in a match with enough code of conduct warnings and violations to make one long for the politesse of the McEnroe era.
Enjoy the tennis!
