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After years of staggering growth in skincare, can makeup get back on top? Many consumers pared back their makeup routines in the wake of the pandemic, with a knock-on impact on sales. But experts say changing tastes and viral TikTok moments are giving cosmetics brands the opportunity to fight back.
There are signs of recovery. Market research firm Circana (formally NPD Group) estimates that total makeup sales in Europe reached $3.7 billion in the 12 months leading up to this May, up 18 per cent on the same period last year. In the US, makeup was the fastest-growing category in the prestige market in the same period — climbing 17 per cent to $9.5 billion.
Social media has helped to spur this growth, capturing a new generation of makeup consumers. “We’ve entered an era similar to the golden age of YouTube days, with more visual and video content available on social media,” says Rich Gersten, founder and managing partner of investment firm True Beauty Ventures. “Consumers have more access to tutorials and the latest products, encouraging more trial and purchasing.”
Brands such as Elf, Mac Cosmetics and Clinique have witnessed significant sales uplifts thanks to a single product taking off on social media — typically TikTok. When a Mac Cosmetics store manager in Toronto posted a TikTok video dubbing the Lustreglass Lipstick in the shade ‘Thanks, It’s Mac’ as her ‘favourite’ lipstick in May 2022, it gained 700,000 views. A second Mac Cosmetics store featured the lipstick in December, gaining a further 800,000 views. Creators jumped in and began to stitch the video, creating a domino effect with more and more content generated every day. The shade in question had been on counter since 2021.
“We sold out in the US, UK and parts of Europe for a number of weeks,” says Cat Quinn, executive director of trend for Mac Cosmetics. “We knew that 90s style shades were having a moment, but we didn’t predict how popular this one colour would become so quickly. We had to adjust to the increases on the fly.”
The power of the review
Social listening company Launchmetrics notes that makeup was responsible for the highest share of media impact value (MIV) of all beauty categories for the first quarter of 2023, with influencer-led content playing a pivotal role in that growth.
Alison Bringé, chief marketing officer at Launchmetrics, says authenticity is powering the boom. “A lot of these big viral moments are starting with a real review from a small to midsize creator, because people feel they can really trust them,” she says. Brands then have to calculate at what point to jump in and add to the conversation, either with marketing spend or their own content — a fine line to walk, says Bringé.
In July 2022, TikTok creator Shanniedarko_ posted about Clinique Almost Lipstick in Black Honey, a product that’s been on counter since 1989. She referred to it as the lipstick worn by Liv Tyler’s character in The Lord of The Rings franchise, and fellow creators jumped in with their own videos reviewing the lipstick.
“We quickly pivoted our digital strategy to include partnering with product fans — both influencers and consumers,” recalls Michelle Freyre, global brand president of Clinique and Origins. “We engaged our brand ambassadors and leveraged creator-generated content across all channels. We also moved into taking pre-orders for the next drops of stock while working on accelerating timing for our product supply.”
Elf Cosmetics has had no shortage of viral moments. Last year, as organic views of its Power Grip Primer on TikTok hit 68 million, the brand saw a 49 per cent sales jump in the third quarter of 2022. Aside from immediate buzz, Laurie Lam, chief brand officer, says virality also provides the company with long-term insights. “Last August, we launched our Halo Glow Liquid Filter [a brightening complexion product] retailing for $14. But, after we went back and read the comments, we saw what our community wanted, which was a set of blush, highlight and contour wands, which we quickly launched.”
While virality can’t be manufactured — nor does it guarantee growth — brands will do well to pay attention to any products, old or new, that start to see a spike, as there may be potential to build on it. The use of employees or talent within a brand’s network to create content can help start a more organic moment.
“Brands are now doing a lot better at investing in their owned media strategies. They’re making sure that they’re having conversations with their already-engaged audience to share with them about new products, but also get feedback on what’s working and what’s not,” notes Bringé of Launchmetrics.
Both Mac and Clinique used the insights gleaned to improve their supply chain agility, as well as to shape new launches. Clinique created a lip gloss version of Black Honey (the original is now the number-one prestige lipstick in the US, according to Circana).
A lighter touch
In addition to facilitating virality, brands are betting on carefully-targeted new launches that cater to consumer desire for softer, more natural-looking products to bolster growth. “Even before the pandemic, consumers were starting to gravitate towards more ‘no makeup’ looks,” says Mathilde Lion, executive director of global client development for Circana.
In terms of volume, sales of lip gloss are “double digits” above 2019 levels, says Lion, adding that other kinds of lighter products such as tinted moisturiser or serum-style foundations are also very popular. “We’re also seeing more blurring between skincare and makeup, with skincare products that have some makeup-like qualities,” says Lion.
“I used to wear a full face of makeup every single day,” says Wende Zomnir, founder and CEO of cosmetics line Caliray (and previously founded Urban Decay, which sold to L’Oréal in 2012). “But I started seeing a trend towards simplicity. At [Urban Decay] we made so many huge eyeshadow palettes, but people were asking us for smaller and simpler. We also launched a primer with skincare ingredients that was incredibly popular,” she says.
Launched direct-to-consumer in 2021 before moving into Sephora last year, Caliray leans on those learnings with a simple product line-up that includes a lightweight skin tint and a collagen-infused primer. To break through the noise on social media, Caliray has embraced tongue-in-cheek marketing, referring to the Freedreaming Skin Wellness Diffusing Tint as “the feeling of unhooking your bra after a long day, but for your face”, and advertising a mascara’s waterproof qualities by recording Zomnir standing under a high-pressure shower head.
“When you look at our ingredients, we really are skincare with pigment,” says Laney Crowell, founder and CEO of Saie Beauty. Crowell says its most recent launch, Super Glowy Super Skin Foundation, has 85 per cent skincare ingredients. “We’re seeing a lot of demand for lightweight products, from foundation to a clear lip oil and brown mascara.” The brand expects to more than double its retail sales this year, to over $60 million.
Saie Beauty has also felt the effects of unexpected virality: Crowell says the bronze shade of its Glowy Super Gel in Sunglow, traditionally sold about a tenth of the volume of the lighter shade, Starglow. Social conversation picked up in February of this year, and now, sales of Sunglow have increased tenfold.
“People still like to add a little accent of personality. But I think consumers want skin that looks like skin,” says Zomnir. “It’s less of a pendulum swinging back to ‘no-makeup-makeup’ and more of an expansion,” explains Crowell. “When you go on TikTok, there’s something for everyone. There’s high glam, high coverage and also the easy fresh-face look. There’s just more people to reach.”
True Beauty Ventures s Gersten encourages founders to take a macro view. “We look for founders that can create demand for their products through building community as well as through their own or branded social channels. We’ve seen many brands who focus entirely on product attributes, such as ‘clean’ or ‘sustainable’. While important, they need to have a competitive advantage or differentiation from any other brand who would launch with the same focus of attributes.”
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