July signals the unofficial start of holiday planning, as retailers and brands map out their most lucrative Q4 period through promotional forecasting and consumer sentiment analysis. And in 2025, the stakes are high. With tariffs reshaping cost structures, and discretionary spending under pressure, the outlook for the holiday season hangs in the balance.
“Inflation is continuing to impact consumer spending and will still weigh on household budgets this Christmas,” says Hannah Fawcett, partner at independent law firm Brabners. She adds that brands are simultaneously contending with rising operating costs, which are compressing margins.
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Jessica Ramírez, co-founder and managing director of advisory firm The Consumer Collective, notes that “household and discretionary budgets remain constrained by an ongoing squeeze between inflation and high-interest rates.” Even when inflation rates fall, it may not offset entrenched price sensitivity, says Jon Earnshaw, co-founder of search intelligence platform Pi Datametrics, “reinforcing the need for strategic pricing and clear value communication”.
Should brands and retailers be concerned?
Analysts say it’s hard to predict beauty’s fourth-quarter performance, given the uncertainty caused by tariffs and conflict in the Middle East. Global management consultancy McKinsey projects that global beauty consumer spending will grow 5 per cent in 2025, a slight deceleration from the 7 per cent growth between 2022 and 2024. While consumers still possess some financial headroom, having accumulated savings (the general savings ratio peaked at 12 per cent of income in Q4 2024, per KPMG), they are expected to manage their budgets with caution.
Brands tell Vogue Business they are expecting customers to practice more discretion when it comes to year-end shopping; therefore, they are switching gears, focusing on their value proposition, communication and extending their Christmas pipelines — some already have some gifting options available online — to allow time and space for the cost-conscious shopper.
Experts and brands weigh in on how to prepare for an uncertain Q4.
Christmas comes early
In the current climate, brands are being advised to move early and with purpose. Black Friday was one of the biggest shopping days of the season last year, surpassing Christmas, according to data firms Bain and Experian.
“November — and the weeks leading up to it — will be the big month for beauty brands this year,” says Matthew Maxwell, business unit director at Kantar’s Worldpanel division. The insight firm’s proprietary UK data shows that the four weeks ended 8 December 2024 accounted for 11.9 per cent of total annual beauty sales. Brands that stretched their campaigns across November saw longer engagement windows and more meaningful conversion rates.
Nicolas Travis, founder of skincare brand Allies of Skin, reports a record Q4 in 2024, crediting its month-long Black Friday approach. “It allowed customers to shop at their own pace, without pressure or stress,” he says. “We’re repeating that strategy in 2025, with expectations of over 80 per cent year-on-year growth.”
Makeup brand P Louise has also launched its Christmas gifting offer earlier than ever. The brand’s festive product offering is beginning to trickle in on its site, and according to P Louise, it has already seen a stronger sales uplift compared with the year prior (last year, the brand’s first wave of products launched in October). “We’re very aware of how tight budgets are affecting consumers this year,” says founder Paige Williams. “That’s why we’ve launched our Christmas gifting options earlier, allowing our customers to plan ahead. We’ve also introduced payment plans for our two advent calendars [£110 and £250], giving our community the ability to spread the costs with installments based on requests from last year.”
The brand also plans to launch lower cost holiday products this year to accommodate its customers. “We’re introducing a wider range of price points to make sure there is something for everyone, without compromising on experience,” says Williams. “This includes entry-level options designed to give more people the chance to gift and receive, no matter their budget.” An example will be the launch of Santa’s Little Helpers [a curation of its bestselling mini makeup products], going live in Q3. While pricing is still to be determined, Williams says it will be its most affordable offering onsite. “It’s designed to be the perfect brand introduction, mixing brand favourites with new launches, so even an affordable bundle feels special,” she says.
Liberty London, meanwhile, is staging phased storytelling across all touchpoints and exclusive pre-sale events before Q4 even hits. “Longer consideration windows are a must this year,” notes Natalie Guselli, Liberty London’s head of beauty and commercial. She references the retailer’s beauty advent calendar as a holiday offering launching earlier this season. “Pre-sale access for our most loyal customers will begin on 2 July [last year the advent calendar hit pre-sale in August], with broader campaign storytelling starting mid-July and running in key three phases: pre-sale engagement, editorial seeding and full launch across Liberty platforms from September,” says Guselli.
She explains that the idea is to meet early discovery needs and pre-purchase interest, and to support staggered purchases — giving customers the ability to plan, budget and feel confident in their purchases, especially given the current economic landscape. “In terms of demand, we’re forecasting strength from exclusives and limited-edition beauty products — especially products tied to storytelling, personalisation and craftsmanship, in fragrance and skincare as key drivers,” says Guselli.
Starting earlier carries a risk of consumer and wallet fatigue, however. If you launch too early, it can dilute impact, Guselli acknowledges. To combat this, the retailer will focus on editorial-style storytelling to unfold in chapters. “Rather than relying on constant ‘drops’, or reactive promotion, we take a curatorial approach to build momentum with substance, not just noise,” she says.
Online beauty retailer Lookfantastic’s chief buying officer Billie Faricy-Hyett says early engagement can actually help mitigate the risk of consumer fatigue by aiding brands and retailers to spread out promotional activity and planning, “allowing consumers more time to absorb messaging without feeling overwhelmed”.
Stock, stock, stock
Operational agility is no longer optional. With tariff volatility, supply chain fragility and rising input costs affecting margins, accurate forecasting and nimble inventory management are now critical. Experts recommend that retailers and brands should be planning and locking in stock levels now, to avoid logistic bottlenecks and secure shelf space.
“Strong retail partnerships are key, especially when planning for high-impact seasons like the holidays,” says Liran Golan, chief supply chain officer at Bansk Beauty, a private investment firm whose portfolio includes haircare brands Amika and Ethique Beauty, which are sold globally at Space NK, Ulta Beauty and more. “We’ve partnered and secured contracts with our retailers to ship our holiday offering earlier this year, making sure our product hits shelves on time and stays stocked throughout the season.” The move hedges against shipping delays, tariff shifts and retailer margin erosion, adds Golan.
At Allies of Skin, deeper forecasting is being used to unlock smarter retail collaboration and add the next layer of protection within an uncertain climate, heading into Q4. “Our strategy is to take full advantage of the opportunities our retailers offer,” says founder Travis, pointing to online partners Dermstore and Cult Beauty. “This means going deeper into their sampling programmes to drive trial and conversion, as well as closely tracking stock levels and sell-through data to better inform replenishment planning.” By aligning more closely with retail partners on both promotional activity and inventory visibility, the brand aims to stay agile and stick throughout the holiday period.
Artificial intelligence is becoming a critical lever in seasonal forecasting and stock planning, helping brands to shore up the right inventory levels early and avoid stock blocks, delivering a smoother customer experience ahead of — and during — the peak season. “AI is a powerful tool for brands to meet consumers at their point of need and during the holiday rush,” says Dija Ayodele, founder of Clicked, an AI dermatology platform and Black Skin Directory, a skincare service for BIPOC consumers. Predictive commerce platforms like Daash Intelligence, which secured $5.5 million in seed funding in January, use real-time sell-through data and AI-powered forecasting to help brands predict in-store demand more accurately at the SKU level, allowing for data-backed decisions about what to produce, where to allocate and when to ship.
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The value equation
A differentiator for beauty brands this holiday season will lie in how well they can communicate value, not just affordability.
Amid economic pressure, beauty has traditionally remained resilient. However, with dupe culture rising and ingredient-savvy consumers demanding efficacy, brand trust must now be earned as marketing noise increases into the final quarter of the year. “One key trend that is impossible to ignore is the growing prevalence of ‘dupe’ culture,” says Fawcett. “During last year’s holiday season, this was partly driven by consumers having less disposable income and being more selective with their spending. But the question remains whether the product’s performance is equivalent.”
Performance — backed by science and data — is now a brand’s biggest asset during the holiday season, especially in the fight against dupes. Shoppers are more willing to ‘trade up’ if they understand what makes a product better, whether it’s through clear results, clinical claims or multi-benefit formulations. “Consumers are increasingly educated on skincare and are looking more to data-backed product claims and substantiated efficacy, innovation and personalisation,” Fawcett adds.
This shift is redefining what it means to be premium. “Consumers are willing to sacrifice breadth for depth when brands justify their price point through proven results and elevated experiences,” argues Brand and beauty strategy consultant, Sophie Blowfield. “It’s not about being more affordable, it’s about being more valuable.” Earnshaw echoes this from a consumer behavioural perspective. According to Pi Datametrics’s proprietary data, “32 per cent of consumers report actively purchasing cheaper alternatives or dupes, but only 18 per cent say they prefer them to branded products,” Earnshaw says. “That gap is where brands have the opportunity to reaffirm their value, not just through product, but through trust, experience and storytelling.”
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To convert this strategy into sales during the festive period, brands should spotlight efficacy directly in holiday messaging and showcase proof of performance in festive, consumer-friendly formats. For example, clinical trial statistics, or the breakdown of product benefits on gift set inserts, in gift guides and on holiday-centric product packaging. Earnshaw recommends “Why it works” storytelling across campaign copy and content as a performance proof piece and to ensure brands stay credible.
At Allies of Skin, this shift has triggered a complete repositioning effort. “We’re refining the way we communicate our value proposition as well as the way things look,” says Travis. “We’re giving the packaging, website and socials a facelift. The truth is, our products are by no means affordable, but one serum or moisturiser from us will give you multiple benefits. So, buy better and buy less.” Over Christmas, this will look like a focus on performance-led gifting, with curated messaging, routines and discovery kits that highlight the visible results a single or duo product can deliver across multiple concerns. The brand’s 2024 holiday gift guide underscored this approach, with travel-size versions like the Allies Holiday Travel Kit and full-size hero sets such as the Radiance Ritual Set, designed and communicated to demonstrate efficacy, boost trial use and reinforce “do more with less”.
Experience and emotional connection
Guselli notes brands should focus on experience as a form of value currency. “This year, brands must bridge value and experience,” she says. “Discovery kits, tiered gifting options and high-quality sampling are essential not just for affordability, but for delivering on experimentation. Emotional connection is what justifies premium pricing.”
This season, brands are recommended to double down on giftability, including personalised options, sensorial formats, hybrid textures and entry-point sets that balance aspiration with access. “One of the biggest surprises was the success of Christmas collections, limited-editions and brand discoveries,” says Guselli. “These outperformed classic hero SKUs. Customers leaned into products that felt meaningful and beautifully executed, reflecting a broader desire for emotional connection in gifting.”
Service is a big part of the equation. “We’re doubling down on service and making every shopping moment feel like a meaningful exchange,” Guselli says. “When the experience is immersive, considered and joyful, customers don’t just shop, they connect. That connection is what drives conversion.” Williams agrees. Last year, P Louise saw strong results from its first-ever ‘Pinkmas Christmas’ experience — a festive wonderland where customers could explore the brand’s holiday collection, attend makeup workshops and ice skate. This year, the brand says it’s going bigger. Its upcoming immersive experience at the Trafford Centre in Manchester, UK, is set to be 10 times the scale, per the brand, with tickets already sold out. While Williams remains tight-lipped on the details, she’s clear on the intent: “Impeccable service and experiential retail will be our defining strategy for the 2025 holiday season. It’s about evoking a memorable feeling that consumers and the community move to love, value and invest in.”
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