The story of the first week of this year’s U.S. Open? Record crowds, perfect weather, and—on the women’s side, at least—some big upsets: World number one and first-seeded Iga Swiatek went down to the number 20 seed, Latvian Jelena Ostapenko, a streaky player who’s clearly found her groove against Swiatek; Ostapenko has beaten Swiatek each of the four times she’s played her over the last five years. Third-seeded Jessica Pegula, the highest-ranked American woman, who’s been on a roll lately, saw that roll come to a halt yesterday at the hands of 17th-seeded American Madison Keys.
Other matches weren’t so much upsets as they were heartbreakers: After a beyond-impressive return to tennis that included wins over American Jessica Brady and 11th-seeded Petra Kvitová, 33-year-old mother of two Caroline Wozniacki was stopped by Coco Gauff in the round of 16. With a restart like this, we can’t wait to see what she might do next season. “I think I’m exactly where I want to be,” Wozniacki said after her loss to Gauff.
Today’s quarterfinals include sixth-seeded Gauff, who has electrified fans and terrified opponents so far, squaring off against Ostapenko. The two are 1-1 head-to-head, though Gauff would seem to have an easier time of it against Ostapenko than did Swiatek: While Ostapenko was clearly playing hot against Swiatek, she’s rarely managed to string together an impressive run over top-ranked players at a major (save for in 2017, when she won the French Open as an unseeded player).
Tomorrow, Keys—a 2017 U.S. Open finalist who’s been enjoying something of a return to form here—plays ninth-seeded Czech player Marketa Vondrousova, while second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka—who, because of Swiatek’s loss, will become the new number-one-ranked player in the world when the rankings are updated next Monday, after the tournament—plays 23rd-seeded Qinwen Zheng of China, who’s been riding a rocket.
On the men’s side, fewer upsets so far, but more records: 10th-seeded Frances Tiafoe, ninth-seeded Taylor Fritz, and unseeded Ben Shelton are all headed to the quarters—the first time that three American men have made it that far at the Open since 2005. (This year, the main draw featured three more Americans, Tommy Paul, Christopher Eubanks, and Sebastian Korda—the most since 2004.) It’s also the first major tournament since 1968—that’s 55 years ago—in which more than one Black American man made it to the quarters. The energy at Tiafoe’s matches in particular has been palpable: His matches in Louis Armstrong Stadium—the second-largest of the venues at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center—have been deafening spectacles in front of overflow crowds, with lines of fans snaking across the grounds of the Open, waiting to get in merely for a standing-room-only peek at the action.
It’s a show of strength that’s been a long time building: No American man has won the Open since Andy Roddick in 2003—and, with both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz still in the mix, it’s unlikely that’ll change—but Fritz will play Djokovic this afternoon and do his best to prove everybody wrong, while Shelton plays Tiafoe tonight in prime time, with the winner of that match playing the winner of Fritz-Djokovic in the semis.
The big variable: The weather. It’s going to be be in the lower 90s until midweek—something that would seem to mostly favor Gauff in her matchup against Ostapenko.
Unfiltered, unbiased, and possibly unfounded prediction: A women’s final with Gauff playing Sabalenka and, despite all the success on the American side, the dream final that we’ve all been hoping for: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic. (Fingers crossed; we’re getting closer!)
