After years of political flip-flopping, TikTok could be banned in the US tomorrow. But compared to the last TikTok ban deadline — which prompted teary goodbye videos from creators and a public outcry — this time, no one seems fazed.
That’s likely in part because a deal seems imminent ahead of the deadline to sell the company to a US buyer by 5 April in order to avoid a nationwide ban. As of Thursday night, President Donald Trump said that a bid to buy a majority share of the app from Chinese parent company Bytedance was “very close” to coming together with multiple investors. The deal, Trump said, would create “TikTok America”, with a group of American companies owning 80.01 per cent and Bytedance maintaining 19.99 per cent — preserving the app’s all-important algorithm under Bytedance ownership, which it would then commission to the US.
A number of potential bidders have thrown hats into the ring, including Amazon, OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely, software company Oracle, mobile technology company Applovin, private equity firm Blackstone and VC firm Andreessen Horowitz.
Creators and brands rely on TikTok for reach and revenue. After the first short-lived ban in January, which lasted about 14 hours before Trump made a deal to extend the deadline, users in the US have resumed scrolling, dancing and debating on the app.
“TikTok makes up 70 to 80 per cent of my income,” says fashion creator Victoria Paris, who has 1.9 million TikTok followers. “It feels surreal to be going through this again. I have faith that something will work out but it’s still been frustrating, as my livelihood depends on the platform.” Paris is about to launch her jewellery brand, Tenfour, in five days, which will lean on her TikTok platform for promotion. “[Tenfour] is the pivot I’ve been planning for the past two years to diversify my career, but it feels like we’re running against the clock. [If TikTok is banned], the timing would be pretty shitty.”
The potential ban was initiated by former President Joe Biden, who signed a bill in April 2024, over information security concerns around TikTok’s Chinese ownership. The company’s attempt to overturn the bill on 6 December was rejected, causing major concerns for TikTok’s 170 million US users. Brands and creators began shifting to alternative social media platforms in preparation, from Reels and YouTube Shorts to rising Chinese platform Red Note, or Xiaohongshu.
The quick rebound of the first ban may explain why many creators and brands aren’t rushing to overhaul their strategies now. “We’re keeping a close eye on developments, but we aren’t rushing to make any drastic moves,” says Amy Sturgis, founder of PR company ASC Global. “That said, we’re making sure our clients are prepared for any outcome.”
Influencer agency Billion Dollar Boy analysed the activity of over 10,000 creators across the US and the UK, reviewing more than 78,000 posts and 19 billion impressions. It found the number of TikTok posts published by creators in the week leading up to the impending April ban deadline was 41 per cent higher than the week before the initial January deadline, signalling greater creator confidence in the platform this time around. Moreover, whereas the number of YouTube Shorts published the week following the initial ban increased by 23 per cent, this time there has been no growth in published content — suggesting consumer optimism towards TikTok and scepticism about whether the ban will actually be enforced.
“I hate to say it, but I’m a bit in denial,” says creator Kira Kirby, who has 225,000 TikTok followers. “When the ban was looming in January, I took the time to prepare for the worst — mapping out what it would mean for my business. This time, I’ve decided to push it out of my mind. If it does happen, it would be devastating — not just for creators, but for businesses, brands and the broader economy that relies on it.” In terms of preparation, since January, Kirby has been putting “a lot more focus” on Instagram, and is considering Snapchat or YouTube as potentials. But she’s not made any major moves ahead of this weekend, and is hoping for the best.
It’s a sentiment echoed across the board: concern, but not chaos. “TikTok has become such an important cultural platform and has forever changed the way we view social media. All platforms now mimic its video-first approach,” says Perdica Babaheidari, co-founder and CMO of accessories brand By Banoo. “That’s why we [continue to] create TikTok-style content across the board, just with slight tweaks depending on the platform. So even if TikTok is banned, our content strategy will remain strong.”
That said, for brands with major TikTok-led campaigns in the pipeline, the uncertainty has been frustrating. “We’ve been planning our first live-shopping experience on TikTok for two months, well before the ban was even floated,” adds Patrick Cho, CEO of denim brand Miss Me, who says the brand has seen climbing sales since joining TikTok last year thanks to the platform’s broad reach. But the scheduled launch date ended up coinciding with the April ban deadline, throwing a wrench into their plans. It also disrupted their Coachella strategy, which hinged on festival activations featuring influencers with 15-20 million TikTok followers. “If the platform disappears, we’ll lose a massive chunk of our campaign’s reach and impact.”
The potential ban and the January blackout had already affected creators’ careers. “It did impact February [New York] Fashion Week. Everything was up in the air as US brands didn’t know how to move forward with campaigns and were pushing more Instagram deliverables than TikTok,” says Chiara King, a UK influencer with over a million followers on Instagram and 4.1 million on TikTok. Still, she’s remained positive. “TikTok is a significant contributor to the US economy. As long as the platform continues to boost the economy, I don’t see it going anywhere.”
A wake-up call to diversify
“[The potential ban is] a stark reminder that social platforms are rented space, not owned real estate. Creators and brands alike need to think beyond algorithms and invest in long-term audience relationships,” says Billion Dollar Boy global CEO and co-founder Ed East.
Rather than panic, many in the industry treated the situation as a reminder of the risks of platform dependence and a push towards broader, more diversified strategies. “The uncertainty hasn’t significantly disrupted our clients’ campaigns, but it has reinforced the need to be agile,” says Sturgis of ASC Global. “We’re ensuring that influencer partnerships and content strategies are flexible enough to pivot if necessary. Repurposing content across multiple platforms is a key focus.”
“You never want to be fully dependent on one platform, especially one you don’t control,” adds Maria Hatzistefanis, founder of Rodial Beauty. “Platforms come and go in popularity, and you have to be ready for that.”
In response, brands are also taking the opportunity to double down on owned channels and IRL experiences. “We’re building our newsletter, growing on other platforms and leaning into community: events, collaborations, blogging. Basically, making sure people can still find us and vibe with us,” say Lauren Schiller and Angela Ruis, co-founders of independent LA-based label OGBFF.
Kristin Hars, founder of elevated activewear brand Sisterly Tribe, agrees. “We already operate across Instagram, Pinterest and email, and we’re seeing strong traction there. At the same time, we’re investing in offline experiences — community events in New York, Stockholm, London and LA — to deepen our connection with our audience. These moments are just as important as digital ones for long-term brand affinity,” she explains.
Instagram has already benefitted from the to and fro. “The data around the time of the original ban on 19 January indicates that Instagram has emerged as the main beneficiary, especially for fashion and beauty brands already deeply embedded in the Meta ecosystem,” says East. According to their proprietary software, Companion, in the week before and after, content creation increased almost equally on YouTube Shorts (up 14 per cent) and Instagram Reels (up 16 per cent). “Normally, a surge in content leads to a drop in viewership due to increased competition, but Instagram has defied that — viewership has remained steady (down 4 per cent).”
Regardless of what happens, many see the current moment as a call to build resilience. “Long term, this situation is a reminder of the risks of putting all your eggs in one algorithmic basket,” says Sturgis. “We’re advising our clients to build audiences in spaces they can control — email lists, community platforms, owned content hubs. The takeaway is clear: future-proof your strategy.”
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