The 136th edition of the Wimbledon Championships kicks off today on the grass of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London. The big news, aside from the seedings, pairings, and predictions (which we’ll get to in a moment): the return of Russian and Belarusian players, who were banned from the tournament last year in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s a fantastic development for Daniil Medvedev, Aryna Sabalenka, and Victoria Azarenka, each of whom is seeking their first Wimbledon title.
As to the favorites? First, some potential history in the making. While Carlos Alcaraz is currently ranked first in the world and seeding number one here, he’s not really the favorite on the men’s side; that would be Novak Djokovic, who’s won this tournament for the last four years (and three times before that). One more win here and, aside from adding to his already historic 23 Grand Slam titles, he would tie Roger Federer’s record of eight Wimbledon titles and equal Federer’s and Borg’s shared record of five straight championships—and, as a bonus, would retake the number one ranking from Alcaraz. (Nor is the top ranking a mere two-man show: If Medvedev wins the title and Djokovic and Alcaraz falter early enough, Medvedev becomes the new best player in the world.)
Of the top two, it’s Djokovic with the vastly easier draw. Alcaraz, meanwhile, will have to get through a spate of players that may include Alexander Zverev, grass-court maestro Alex de Minaur, and Frances Tiafoe, among others—and given that Alcaraz has spent a relatively paltry amount of time playing on the surface, he likely faces an uphill battle here. Much like his friend and compatriot Rafael Nadal, though, there’s one thing you don’t do with Alcaraz: Count him out. Assuming the nerves that derailed his French Open have been sorted, he’ll be competitive here or anywhere. But let’s look for Medvedev, Casper Ruud, and Jannik Sinner to make it through to the later rounds—though Ruud and Sinner will likely have to battle each other to reach the quarters, with our money on Sinner in that battle. (The dream semifinals, of course, would be Alcaraz-Medvedev and Sinner-Djokovic.)
On the women’s side: While there’s little history being chased here, there is an abundance of riches. On first glance, there seem to be five or six top-20-seeded players who could take this title. Like on the men’s side, though, the number one seed (in this case, Iga Swiatek) would seem to have a hard road in front of them. While Swiatek doesn’t seem comfortable or confident on grass (she’s never made it past the fourth round at Wimbledon), she’s constantly improving and her mental game is solid.
On the other side of that draw, though, is where things get interesting, with defending champion (and third-seeded player) Elena Rybakina; the always fierce and formidable Sabalenka, seeded second; two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitová, seeded ninth but playing with renewed vigor lately; and a host of other challengers, including Americans Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur, and Brazil’s Beatriz Haddad Maia, seeded 13th but absolutely poised for a breakout Grand Slam run. While it’s hard to see anyone from this later group stealing the title, any of them is capable of playing the spoiler to almost anyone on the other side of the net. (Dream semifinals: Sabalenka–Haddad Maia and Swiatek-Pegula.)
The world’s number one ranking is in play here as well: If either Sabalenka or Swiatek make the final, they become the world’s best. And if we’re lucky, of course, we see the two of them battle it out for the trophy.
