If you’ve been following this year’s Wimbledon tournament, you already know what a topsy-turvy fortnight it’s been, with upset after upset virtually from the start. More top-10-seeded players—from Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula to Zheng Qinwen and Paula Badosa—were beaten in the first round here than at any other Wimbledon in history; on the men’s side, 19 seeded players were knocked out in the first round.
That’s left us with finals that are, on one side, utterly surprising, and on the other, thrillingly predictable: American Amanda Anisimova will play Iga Swiatek—neither have won the tournament before—for the women’s championship tomorrow, while Carlos Alcaraz will play Jannik Sinner on Sunday in what the world hopes will be a sequel to their masterful five-set French Open spectacular. (Both matches are at 11 a.m. ET.)
First, to the women’s final: The seeding differential isn’t huge—Swiatek is eighth, Anisimova 13th—but both players have been largely under the radar lately when it comes to big moments on tennis’s grand stages. While Swiatek is a former longtime No. 1-ranked player with five majors on her resume, she’s been in a bit of a slump since taking her third consecutive French Open title last year, and she’s never been dominant on grass. Anisimova, meanwhile, will be playing her first-ever major final. And oddly—given the length of the season, the number of tournaments every player has to play each year, and the number of years both Swiatek and Anisimova have been playing—they’ve never faced one another in a tour match, so there’s virtually no history to rely on here.
So who’s going to come out ahead? With no head-to-head data, it’s impossible to predict, but we’ll say this: Anisimova (who, if she wins, would be the first American women’s Wimbledon champion since Serena Williams in 2016, and the youngest since Serena in 2003), plays a very intense, hard-hitting game from the baseline, and—maybe crucially, in this case—hits the ball with little or no spin. This makes her margins for error razor-thin, and with her nerves likely on edge in the biggest match of her career, how she handles the pressure may prove to be everything here. She’s also very capable—much like Aryna Sabalenka, whom she beat to get to the final—of becoming undone when things don’t go her way. Self-control will be key.
Swiatek, on the other hand, hits with equal intensity from the baseline but uses heavy topspin, which can make her shots sometimes magically drop in the court. She also moves faster and better than Anisimova. That combination should be enough to beat Anisimova in two tight sets. The wildcard: Swiatek, normally stoic and focused on the court, has occasionally seemed distracted or at odds with herself this season. This one could come down to a battle of nerves, with the steadier player stealing tennis’s biggest title.
As to The Rematch: Could Alcaraz vs. Sinner get any better than what the world marveled at in Paris? Unbelievably—or, on the other hand, obviously—we’re going to get to find out. Both Sinner (seeded first) and Alcaraz (second) rolled through their earlier matches to get here, with only Alcaraz suffering some minor hiccups along the way, losing a set here or there. (Who would have thought that Alcaraz would have more trouble with Taylor Fritz in the semis than Sinner had with 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic?) Sinner’s lead-up has been impeccable—save for what seems to be a minor tweak to the elbow of his left arm. Nobody in the Sinner camp, of course, will spill state secrets about how he’s really feeling, but it seems to be mostly fine, and if that’s the case, we’re all level-up for the final. Head-to-head, Alcaraz leads, 8-4, including 3-1 in major tournaments, all finals. Add to that the fact that grass is Alcaraz’s best surface—there’s a reason he’s the two-time defending champion here—and it would seem to be a lock, yes?
No! Alcaraz will be facing the best player in the world, playing the best tennis of his life—and Sinner will have a chip on his shoulder. That match at Roland-Garros looms large in his psyche, and there’s only one way to move past it: By beating Alcaraz where he plays best. Both players move extremely well, with Alcaraz perhaps having a slight upper hand here. Both players have plenty of experience playing at the highest level on the biggest stages. We’ll give Sinner the slight edge in terms of mental fortitude. But to predict an outcome in a match of this significance, with players in such impeccable form, would be foolhardy. We’re still early in their rivalry; we’re incredibly lucky. Just watch.
(But while we’re being foolhardy: Alcaraz in four.)
