Rewind just a couple days, and you’d be forgiven for thinking the 2026 Oscar race was all sewn up. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another had swept all the major precursors, taking home the top prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and, just this past Saturday, the Producers’ Guild of America Awards, a major Academy Award bellwether. Now, it just needed SAG’s Actor Award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture to confirm its dominance.
But the latter ceremony provided us with exactly the kind of last-minute twist that makes awards season so exhilarating: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners took that honor instead. Given final Oscars voting is currently taking place—with all ballots to be submitted by Thursday—this will certainly give the rollicking vampire saga a huge boost. The enthusiasm for the film was clear in the room—Viola Davis cheered wildly before awarding the best actor prize to its star, Michael B. Jordan; Samuel L. Jackson let out a resounding laugh before giving Sinners the ensemble prize; both victories elicited buoyant standing ovations; and Delroy Lindo’s teary, somewhat stunned final speech will surely remain top of mind for still-undecided voters.
A best picture Oscar win is not guaranteed by any means—the PGA victor has gone on to win best picture seven times out of 10 over the last decade, so it’s the more reliable predictor. (In the case of the SAG ensemble prize, it’s lined up with best picture five times in the past 10 years.) But when best picture doesn’t go to the PGA winner (1917 in 2020, The Big Short in 2016), it often goes to the SAG ensemble winner (Parasite, Spotlight). As a result, come Oscar night in 13 days, Sinners and One Battle could be neck-and-neck for the top prize.
And it’s not the only battle keeping us on the edge of our seats. Another is in best actor: after taking the Critics’ Choice Award, Golden Globe, and basically every critics’ association prize going, it seemed inconceivable that anyone other than Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet would clinch that award. Yes, the BAFTAs provided a curveball, handing that prize to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo, but wasn’t that just a classically left-field move from an awards body that loves rewarding homegrown talent? Well, maybe not, as it turns out—it was perhaps, as some suspected, an indication that Chalamet isn’t the way-out-in-front leader of the pack we assumed he was. At the SAG Actor Awards it was, of course, Michael B. Jordan who triumphed.
The reception he received in the room was immense, and his speech characteristically charming—a much-needed reminder of the 39-year-old’s unparalleled charisma and the many years he’s worked in the industry, zipping from action epics and franchise fare to more serious dramas and beloved indie hits. It’s entirely possible that he channels this momentum into a best actor Oscar win. (Lest we forget, Sinners has an all-time record 16 nominations, so this is a film the Academy truly loves.)
And if he doesn’t? Well, someone other than Chalamet could also sneak in. Given One Battle’s Leonardo DiCaprio and Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke couldn’t get over the line here, it may not be them. But, The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, who wasn’t up for an Actor Award—non English-language performances are eligible, but none were recognized this year—is the dark horse. The Academy has a sizeable contingent of international voters; Moura took the Golden Globe over Jordan earlier this year and The Secret Agent is clearly well-liked, with four Oscar nods (including for best picture). If the American consensus is split between Chalamet and Jordan, we could very well see Moura stealthily sliding into first place. Whatever happens, when this particular envelope is opened, I know I’ll be watching through my fingers.
Remarkably, the same is true of both the supporting acting races. At one point, after his Golden Globe win, it was looking like Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård had the best supporting actor statuette in the bag. But then Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi had, of course, won that prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, One Battle’s Benicio del Toro had taken a string of critics’ prizes, and his co-star, Sean Penn, scooped the BAFTA—and now the SAG Actor Award, too.
At both of these ceremonies, Penn failed to show up and his win felt like a slightly awkward moment in the room; this should, in theory, harm his Oscar chances (it’s clear the already double Oscar winner isn’t gunning for a third statuette). But voters do sometimes simply choose their favorite performances, regardless of the campaign attached to it. (Just think of The Father’s Anthony Hopkins’s shocking win over the presumed victor, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’s Chadwick Boseman, in 2021 for example.) So, a Penn Oscar victory isn’t totally out of the question.
If it’s not him, though, it could be anyone: some have speculated that the BAFTA and Actor Award snubs against Skarsgård could work in his favor, given their proximity to the Oscars voting period (it kicked off last Thursday, four days after he lost at the BAFTAs). Skarsgård has campaigned diligently, shown up everywhere, gives an exquisite performance, and has had a formidable, more-than-five-decade-long career, which is surely Oscar-worthy.
But then again, Benicio del Toro is beloved and not out of the running, despite already being an Oscar winner; Elordi gives exactly the kind of transformative turn that usually wins acting Oscars; and what about Sinners’s Delroy Lindo? Not nominated by SAG, BAFTA, the Golden Globes, or the Critics’ Choice Awards, Lindo’s late-breaking surge has been galvanizing, to say the least. Here’s an actor who’s had an incredible career and been consistently overlooked. Wouldn’t a best supporting actor Oscar win for him be the most cinematic result of all?
Which brings us to best supporting actress. At the Actor Awards, it was Weapons’s Amy Madigan who came from behind to take the prize. The 75-year-old veteran looked genuinely floored, did a delightful Weapons-style run as she climbed onto the podium, laughed at the audience, and reminded everyone that this was her very first SAG nomination. Her assured and very funny speech is one I can easily see repeated at the Oscars, and it’s worth remembering that the “it’s time” narrative is a powerful one.
But One Battle’s Teyana Taylor, the Golden Globe winner, and Sinners’s Wunmi Mosaku, the BAFTA recipient, aren’t out of the race, either. The general consensus seems to be that Sentimental Value’s Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas will split the vote in this category, but there’s even a world where I could see the latter spoiling, with the Norwegian actor winning over the Academy’s international voters as Moura also might. It’s truly all to play for.
All of which is to say: this set of Actor Awards winners has given this Oscar race a whole new lease of life. Yes, Paul Thomas Anderson will almost certainly take home the best director prize and Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley best actress, but in recent years, it’s felt as if a majority of the categories have been nailed down in the run-up to the ceremony. Last year, the only surprise among the acting prizes was Mikey Madison’s best actress win for Anora over The Substance’s Demi Moore. The year before that, Oppenheimer ran the table, turning what should have been a nail-biter into a snoozy foregone conclusion. That is, frankly, no fun—but this time around, I absolutely can’t wait to see what happens.
